FRANKFURT, Nov 10 [Reuters] - Germany could be in for a mild winter, the meteorological office DWD said on Thursday, raising the possibility that energy supply tightness caused by Russia's curbs of fuel exports might not hurt consumers and industry as badly as feared.
European gas prices have hit multi-year highs this year as Russia dramatically cut volumes it sends to Europe amid war in Ukraine, raising prospects of shortages for manufacturers and cold homes and driving up costs.
"We expect a comparatively mild winter," said Tobias Fuchs, Director Climate and Environment of the DWD. "If the model is right, we will be able to save heating energy as a result."
Looking ahead into December through February 2023, the coldest three months of the season, DWD predicted a mean temperature of at least two degrees Celsius, which would place 2022/23 in the 33% of mildest winters of the reference period 1991-2020.
The multi-year average of this period is 1.4 degrees.
Germany, Europe's biggest economy and power market is also a leading consumer and importer of gas, coal and oil. Half of all households heat with gas.
Germany's energy regulator on Thursday noted that gas consumption last week, the running year's 44th, was down slightly compared to a four-year average over 2018-2021.
The authority would be in charge of gas rationing if things got tight and has pleaded consumption must fall by at least 20%, to stem shortfalls.
Its president Klaus Mueller has warned that just a few freezing cold days could cause a dramatic jump in gas usage and that underground gas inventories, even at a current 99.6% filling level, would only last 9 to 10 weeks.
Refinitiv meteorologist Georg Mueller on Monday issued a seasonal forecast for taking a similar line, predicting near normal or slightly warmer than normal patterns until January in northern and southern Europe.
Major colder than normal spells in January and February were not likely, he added.
Reporting by Vera Eckert, editing by Raissa Kasolowsky
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Above-normal temperatures would ease pressure on gas storage Gas prices have fallen but remain 80% above year-ago levels
November 1, 2022, 7:43 AM UTCUpdated onNovember 1, 2022, 8:45 AM UTC
Europe is set for a mild November, easing pressure on natural-gas storage as the region’s energy crunch restricts supplies ahead of winter.
Long-range outlooks from forecasters Maxar Technologies LLC and Marex show no cold spells for the month -- a relief for households worried about the cost of heating and for governments keen to preserve gas stocks following a slump in Russian supply.
2022 Winter Predictions
2023 Winter Outlook
[Dec. 2022 through March 2023]
British Isles - Europe
Predictions - Utilizing
ClimatePulse Technology Developed by GWOElectromagnetic Interactions of the Earth-Moon-SunOverview:
GWO's Climate Pulse Technology incorporates several factors for determining winter weather for the
United States - Alaska - Canada - Europe. The severity - or non severity of the 2022 winter [November
2021 through March 2022] is based on the Natural Climate Pulse similarities to past years, the 230-year
Global Cooling Cycles and the associated cooling of the Arctic and Antarctic, the expanding extent of
Artic ice, positions of semi-permanent weather features such as the position and strength of the Aleutian
Low pressure center - Pacific High Pressure Center - European storm track - position and strength of the
North Atlantic High and Low pressure centers, and the presence or non-presence of an El Nino or La Nina.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Newly Released Findings
November 2022
- see Videos in Video Section -
Major ChangesComing !
Powerful New Video by Professor Dilley
Released 23 November 2022Explains Climate Cycles and Carbon Dioxide Mis-InformationView here____________________________________ Now Transitioning [2022-2024]Leaving - Global Warming Cycle #6 Entering - Global Cooling Cycle #6 [cycles past 1,200 years]Global Warming and Cooling CyclesBegin at the Poles - End at the Poles 1. 2022 Greenland summer of 2022- Gained the Most Ice and Snow - In History
- Full Report - here
3. 2022 Antarctic winter - Coldest on Record4. 2022 Southern Hemisphere Full Report - here
- Strongeston Record - Atmosphere's Stratospheric Cooling
- Alaska into Central and Northern Canada to Greenland
- Dangerous Global Cooling from 2023 through 2085
- at Ending Stage of a Global Warming Cycle
- Explained in Professor Dilley's Video - here
- Close to Normal for Current 120,000 Year Cycle
- Rise since 1850 is 80% Natural Carbon Dioxide
- Rise in Carbon Dioxide has not Changed the Climate
New Climate Change Video by Professor Dilley
Released March 15, 2020
[cycles since 800 AD]
Leaving Global Warming Cycle #6
During 2022 to 2024
Entering Global Cooling Cycle #6
"Talking A Walk Through Climate Change - and the Unexpected Climate Disaster"
Climate Prediction - 2023 through 2065
Sea Level Prediction - 2025 to 2090
Climate Change Disaster Coming - and we are not prepared
Why Sea Levels Will Not Rise after 2025
view here
- Overview: Predictions Based On
The global climate pattern is now transitioning from a global warming cycle
[2000 through 2015] to a global cooling long-term cycle. Both the Arctic and Antarctic
entered the next global cooling cycle and are now cooling dramatically.
The Greenland ice pack has made a dramatic turn about during the past 2 years
[2018 and 2019] with the ice now becoming thicker.
Due to the 2015-16 El Niño, sea ice diminished in the western Arctic near Alaska and
Euro-Straights region near Iceland. The ice diminished during late 2015 into 2016 - then
began thickening again as the Arctic to Greenland area became colder during 2018 and 2019.
In response to the cooling caused by the gravitational induced ClimatePulse and the Solar Maunder
Minimum, sea ice extent and thickness is now expanding - and this had a direct influence on
the very cold Polar Vortex outbreaks that have occurred the past two winters. Although they were
brief - they will become longer in duration in 2020 and beyond. Thus earth is transitioning to a
colder climate.
The sun has entered a cooler phase - hence conditions much like the period from the
1940s through the 1970s will alter the warm temperatures experienced during the period from
about 2000 to
2016.
Cyclical 2 to 5 year occurrences of an El Niño or La Niña typically changes weather patterns
[refer to the El Niño page for more information click here. Some regions will be wetter than normal, some drier. Some regions will be warmer than normal, some colder than normal.
The Arctic Region tends to be warmer than normal during an El Niño and/or Natural Global Warming Cycles - these events cause weather patterns that force warmer air into the Arctic
and across northern latitudes - thus Arctic ice melting occurs.
The Arctic tends to be much colder during La Niña and Neutral Conditions, and during Global
Cooling Cycles [see below]
3. Stalled Weather Patterns - Changes in the Cycles 2017 and Beyond
GWO has found that many weather patterns exhibit recurring cycles
with some major cycles occurring approximately every 3 to 5 years, 18 years,
23 years, 72 years and 220 years.
The California drought - warm weather Globally - wet conditions, hurricane landfalls,
floods, are all part of these cycles.
Changing Cycles: GWO is predicting major changes in the upcoming years as
past cycles re-enter the weather patterns - thus changing Global Winters Drastically.
4. Climate Pulse Overview:
As discussed in Mr. Dilley's eBook [Earth's Natural Climate Pulse] that can be read free of charge in the Climate Section, the period from about 1997 through 2012 was the second twin
peak of warm global temperatures [1930s was the first]. Twin warm temperature peaks are a signature of all global warming cycles [5 in the past 1,000 years]. The cold winters in some regions of the world and the cooling now taking place in both the Arctic and Antarctic signals the ending of the current global warming cycle. Every global warming cycle comes like clockwork about every 216 years, and also ends like clockwork. Rapid cooling of the high Arctic in 2013 and 2014 denotes the ending of the global warming cycle. Next cycle will be in about 120 years.
Ever since planet Earth was created about 4.5 billion years ago, it has been exposed to natural processes and forcing mechanisms within the solar system and earth. During the course of millions of years, the interaction of these processes has implemented a natural climate and planetary rhythm. These rhythms include but are not limited to: day and night, the four annual seasons and weather events during the particular season, short-term climate fluctuations and oscillations within the seasons, and long-term climate change cycles such as glacial periods which occur approximately every 120 thousand years.
The gravitational cycles of the moon and sun cause the seasonal tilts of the earth's axis and the 4 seasons. The strong gravitational pull of the moon causes a bulge to form in the center of the 5 oceans. As the earth makes a complete rotation on its axis daily, the moon rises and falls in the sky. This causes dramatic changes to the gravitational pull, with increases and decreases occurring during the daily cycle. This causes a gravitational pulse which in turn causes an interactive plunging action on the ocean's bulge, thus producing the twice daily ocean tides. The gravitational tides are also noticed in the earth's atmosphere, and in lower depths of the ocean.
The daily rotation of the earth provides the twice daily tides, and the 27.5 day elliptical path of the moon around the earth provides a monthly and bi-monthly gravitational pulse. The cycles then extend out in time as the elliptical path of the earth around the sun, and the moon around the earth cyclical change from one month to the next, every 6 months, 4 years, 9 years, 18 years and beyond. The earths 130 thousand year elliptical path is well documented in science and is proven to be the cause for the earth's inter-glacial [warm] as the earth swings in closer to the sun, and glacial periods [cold] that occur every 130 thousand years as the earth wings further away from the sun. The current warm inter-glacial period peaked about 7 thousand years ago, and the peak of the next glacial period will be 70 to 110 thousand years from now.
The Primary Forcing Mechanism [PFM] for climate change is the combination of the elliptical paths of the moon and earth, changes in solar radiation and changes in the gravitational pulses and electromagnetic pulses. The PFM cycles control the Earth's "Natural Climate Pulse", and it is this Natural Pulse that controls weather and climate cycles here on earth.
The earth's climate is very complex and very cyclical due to the PFM Natural Climate Pulse interacting with the oceans, atmosphere and inner/outer cores of earth. The high and low tides of the oceans alternate approximately every 6 hours, and ocean tides and some currents change with the PFM cycles. Above the surface of the Earth is the atmosphere which is made up of nitrogen, oxygen, water vapor and other gases which move fluidly around the planet. The flow of these atmospheric gases are caused by the rotation of the earth, heating of the atmosphere and ground by the sun, proximity of mountain ranges and water bodies such as oceans, and forcing mechanisms such as gravitational tides caused by the PFM cycles,
Earth's temperature changes seasonally due to the seasonal tilt of the earth, with longer term cycles due to the PFM Natural Pulse cycles every 10-years, 230 years and 130 thousand years. Carbon dioxide concentrations are a naturally occurring cycle connected to the short-term global warming cycles that occur approximately every 230 years, and the longer term 130 thousand year glacial and inter-glacial cycles. The eBook written by Mr. Dilley of GWO [avalable on the Natural Pulse Page] illustrates that earth's current temperatures and carbon dioxide levels are perfectly normal for global warming cycle that was occurring up to the year 2012 [now beginning to slip into global cooling for the next 150 years].
GWO’s nineteen [19] years of ongoing research uses a combination of Meteorology, Oceanography, Climatology, Geology and Astronomy along with extensive historical weather and climate data to develop techniques for climate prediction. The most significant discovery was that of the Primary Forcing Mechanism [PFM] which is highly correlated to short-term climate cycles. The combination resulted in the development of prediction models formulated from a subset of the scientifically proven "Milankovitch" cycles of the earth, moon and sun.